British Prime Minister Boris Johnson (L) and main opposition Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn
The British pound has been on a roll of late, climbing against both the dollar GBPUSD, +0.2289% and the euro GBPEUR, +0.0592% on expectations the Conservative party will secure a majority in the Dec. 12 general election.
The pound on Thursday reached a fresh five-month high against the U.S. dollar.
With a majority in Parliament, Prime Minister Boris Johnson intends to pass a withdrawal agreement bill to exit the European Union. Johnson would then have to negotiate a trade deal with the E.U.
Virtually every pre-election poll has the Conservatives with a bigger lead than is necessary to secure a majority in the Parliament. The general consensus is that a victory by 6 or 7 percentage points is needed for Conservatives to escape a so-called hung Parliament.
Of the major polls, only one, from ICM Research, shows the Conservatives with a 7-point lead. More typical is the poll from YouGov showing the Conservatives with a 9-point lead.
If sterling traders are making a mistake, however, it will be because of this chart.
Put together by Samuel Tombs, chief U.K. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, it shows a surge in voter registrations.
About two-thirds of those registrations been made by those under the age of 35, who are far more likely to vote Labour. In 2017, first-time voters aged 18 and 19 favored Labour by 47 percentage points, according to YouGov.